譯/李京倫
Americans are having fewer babies. At first, researchers thought the declining fertility rate was because of the recession, but it kept falling even as the economy recovered. Now it has reached a record low for the second consecutive year.
美國人生的孩子越來越少了。起初，研究人員認為生育率下降是因為經濟衰退，但就算經濟復甦，生育率仍持續下降。如今美國的生育率連兩年寫下歷史新低。
Because the fertility rate subtly shapes many major issues of the day — including immigration, education, housing, the labor supply, the social safety net and support for working families — there's a lot of concern about why today's young adults aren't having as many children. So we asked them.
由於生育率微妙地影響當今許多重大問題，包括移民、教育、住房、勞動力供給、社會安全網和對在職家庭的支持，許多人相當關切時下年輕人為什麼不多生小孩。就讓我們來問問他們。
Wanting more leisure time and personal freedom; not having a partner yet; not being able to afford child-care costs — these were the top reasons young adults gave for not wanting or not being sure they wanted children, according to a new survey conducted by Morning Consult for The New York Times.
「晨間顧問公司」為紐約時報做的一項新調查顯示，希望有更多的閒暇和個人自由，還沒有伴侶，以及負擔不起托兒費用，是年輕人不想或不確定他們想要孩子的主要原因。
About a quarter of the respondents who had children or planned to said they had fewer or expected to have fewer than they wanted. The largest shares said they delayed or stopped having children because of concerns about having enough time or money.
在已有孩子或打算生孩子的受訪者中，約有四分之一說，他們實際上有的或預計會有的孩子，比想要的少。大多數人說，由於擔心沒有足夠的時間或金錢，他們推遲或停止生孩子。
The survey, one of the most comprehensive explorations of the reasons that adults are having fewer children, tells a story that is partly about greater gender equality. Women have more agency over their lives, and many feel that motherhood has become more of a choice.
這份調查是對成年人越生越少的原因最全面的探索之一，說出了一個故事，而這故事的一部分跟更大的性別平等有關。女性對自己的生活享有更大的揮灑空間，許多人認為當母親已經變成更是一種選擇了。
But it's also a story of economic insecurity. Young people have record student debt, many graduated in a recession and many can't afford homes — all as parenthood has become more expensive. Women in particular pay an earnings penalty for having children.
但這也是經濟不安全感的故事。年輕人背負破紀錄的學貸，許多人在經濟衰退的時候畢業，也有許多人買不起房子，而這一切都發生在養兒育女得花更多錢的時刻，女性尤其得在有了孩子之後受到收入減少的懲罰。
"We want to invest more in each child to give them the best opportunities to compete in an increasingly unequal environment," said Philip Cohen, a sociologist at the University of Maryland who studies families and has written about fertility.
美國馬里蘭大學社會學者柯恩研究家庭問題，並曾撰寫有關生育率的文章，他說：「我們希望在每個孩子身上投入更多資源，讓他們在越來越不平等的環境中享有最好的競爭機會。」
At the same time, he said, "There is no getting around the fact that the relationship between gender equality and fertility is very strong: There are no high-fertility countries that are gender equal."
同時，柯恩說：「無可否認，性別平等與生育率高度相關：沒有一個高生育率的國家性別平等。」
The vast majority of women in the United States still have children. But the most commonly used measure of fertility, the number of births for every 1,000 women of childbearing age, was 60.2 last year, a record low. The total fertility rate — which estimates how many children women will have based on current patterns — is down to 1.8, below the replacement level in developed countries of 2.1.
美國絕大多數婦女仍然生孩子，但最常用的衡量生育率標準，即每1000名育齡婦女的生育數量，去年為60.2，創歷史新低。「總生育率」根據目前的模式推估婦女會擁有的子女數量，已降至1.8，低於發達國家2.1的人口替代水準。
The United States seems to have almost caught up with most of the rest of the industrialized world's low fertility rates.
看來美國幾乎趕上了工業化世界絕大多數其餘國家的低生育率水準。
※說文解字看新聞
本文討論美國生育率持續下降的原因。總和生育率（total fertility rate），簡稱生育率（fertility rate），反映婦女一生中生育子女的總數，出生率（birth rate）則是每千人中新生人口的數目。
人口成長最重要的單一因素是生育率，一個區域的人口在沒有移出（emigration）或移入（immigration）的情況下，若要保持穩定，總生育率必須達到2.1，亦即每個育齡婦女都生2.1個孩子，總生育率2.1就是能讓人口不增不減的替代水準（replacement level）。
追蹤生育率可以更有效地分配資源。如果一國的生育率不尋常地維持在高檔，可能須增設學校或加強平價托兒服務。這種情況發生在二戰後美國的嬰兒潮（baby boom）時代，當時總生育率來到3.8。反之，如果總生育率維持在低檔，意味人口迅速老化，醫療和社會安全支出可能會給經濟帶來過多負擔（undue burden）。
與生育率有關的政府政策可能採直接或間接形式。直接的就是給予減稅優惠（tax break）或生育獎勵（childbearing incentives），間接政策針對其他目標，但會在無意中影響生育率，譬如修改有關產假（maternity leave）和陪產假（paternity leave）的規定。不過，其實很少有政策能扭轉總生育率低落的情況。
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